![]() ![]() No representation is made as to the accuracy of the assumptions made within, or completeness of, any modeling, scenario analysis or back-testing.īarclays is not responsible for information stated to be obtained or derived from third party sources or statistical services, and we do not guarantee the information’s accuracy which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates included in this document constitute our judgment as of the date of the document and may be subject to change without notice. Any views expressed may differ from those of Barclays Research. This document has been issued by the Investments division at Barclays Private Banking division and is not a product of the Barclays Research department. Your capital or the income generated from your investment may be at risk. Investments can fall as well as rise in value. In this sense, we might expect, if the conditions are in place, an upturn to be quicker than in previous instances – which averaged 63 trading days to exit a bear market. While historically, it’s taken an average of 143 days from entering a bear market to the low, this sell-off took markets into bear territory in just 16 trading sessions, as opposed to 136 on average in previous downturns. While the financial crisis and the global response to it unfolded slowly, markets this time have fallen very quickly, matched by swift monetary and fiscal action. One that should have a different recovery profile. While the effects continue to evolve, fundamentally it is an external shock that is transitory in nature. The present downturn has been caused by the uncertainty of the impact of a global health crisis, not by imbalances in the financial system. The present environment may bring about memories of the great financial crisis in 2008, which took many years to recover from and may have left lasting emotional scars. ![]()
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